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Meanwhile, in the UK, as parliamentary discussions on Brexit have stepped up, some foreign parties have become more cautious.There have been comparatively few transactions on “trophy” properties, as foreign buyers consider the potential outcomes of current political process.
And although the near-term effects of a hard Brexit on deal flow is uncertain, we expect to see decent opportunities, particularly for UK lenders, throughout the rest of the year.
Despite moderate returns in Continental Europe (we expect prime European commercial real estate to return around 3.4 per cent annualised 2019-2023 versus 14.2 per cent 20142018), the risks around supply and leverage are significantly weaker than in the last cycle.
However, creating income growth is still possible through selective active management and repositioning.
Year-on-year % change * Additional yield above comparable government bonds **High quality: unlevered infrastructure with largely predictable cash flow.
Source: Aviva Investors (for illustrative purposes only). The future returns and opinions expressed are based on Aviva Investors internal forecasts and should not be relied upon as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Aviva Investors nor as advice of any nature.